FEI Is My New Favorite Poll

This article was originally posted on Tar Heel Mania, but I like the FEI system so much I’m going to post it here.

Many thanks to Tomahawk Nation for tipping me off to this.

As someone who majored in a hard science in college, I should probably be more knowledgeable about advanced football statistics. Alas, I have been pretty faithful to the box score up until now. But then I was tipped off to Brian Fremeau’s Efficiency Rankings for college football (FEI for short). It’s a very interesting formula, which you can read about in detail at Brian’s website and in Football Outsiders articles such as this one.

In essence, the rankings are based on the principle that a team’s efficiency in each offensive and defensive drive is a better reflection of a team’s quality than simple statistics accumulated over 60 minutes of play. Like some human and computer polls, the quality of opponents and how well a team plays against good teams. Unlike most human polls, the system rewards teams that play well against good competition whether they win or lose.

Fremeau’s Game Efficiency formula is fairly simple, involving margin of victory (MOV) and competitive possessions (CP, meaning the number of possessions in the game before garbage time, or the opposing team has fewer remaining possessions than is required for a comeback). The formula is as follows:

Game eff. = (MOV / 7) / (CP / 2)

Based on this rubric, one can get a pretty clear idea of how games stack up against one another. Let’s use three examples. First, Florida’s frighteningly efficient 63-5 victory over Kentucky:

Game eff = (58 / 7) / (16 / 2) = 8.2857 / 8 = 1.0357

Pretty scary, right? Conversely, here’s Auburn’s infamous 3-2 victory over Mississippi State:

GE = (1 / 7) / (31 / 2) = 0.143 / 15.5 = 0.0092

Granted it would have been the same if the score was 49-48, but still. Finally, here’s UNC’s 45-24 win over Boston College:

GE = (21 / 7) / (24 /2) = 3 / 12 = 0.2500

Fremeau then takes the game efficiency data and adjusts and expands his stats, factoring in strength of schedule as well as adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency based on opponents. Most or all of Fremeau’s statistical explanations can be found in his articles on Football Outsiders.

With this rubric in mind, Let’s look at his FEI top 25. Keep in mind, he factors out all games against FCS opponents.

Rank	Team	W-L	FEI
1	Texas	8-0	0.302
2	Penn State	8-0	0.284
3	North Carolina	5-2	0.277
4	USC	6-1	0.267
5	Florida	6-1	0.266
6	Alabama	8-0	0.245
7	Georgia	6-1	0.217
8	Virginia Tech	4-3	0.200
9	Georgia Tech	4-2	0.200
10	Oklahoma	6-1	0.200
11	Oklahoma State	6-1	0.197
12	Texas Tech	6-0	0.194
13	Florida State	4-1	0.192
14	Missouri	5-2	0.184
15	Ohio State	6-2	0.166
16	Connecticut	5-2	0.162
17	Mississippi	3-4	0.157
18	Vanderbilt	5-3	0.141
19	Boston College	4-2	0.138
20	Ball State	7-0	0.135
21	Miami	4-3	0.134
22	Pittsburgh	5-2	0.129
23	Iowa	4-3	0.128
24	Wake Forest	4-3	0.120
25	South Carolina	4-3	0.119

Wait a minute…am I reading this right? Is North Carolina…NUMBER 3!?!?

It’s like that, except replace “Michael Bay” with “the collective heads of everyone outside the ACC”.

Even more interesting than UNC’s #3 ranking here is their #1 ranking in adjusted defensive efficiency. What this means is that the Tar Heels do a better job of disrupting the efficiency of opposing offenses better than any other defense in the nation. And this is in spite of an apparent allergy to blitzes and the frustrating 2-minute defense. That, my friends, is impressive.

Mind you, FEI is not my new favorite poll because it’s very UNC-friendly. (But it helps.) It’s my new favorite poll because it is a lot less arbitrary than the coaches or media polls, and is a statistic-based ranking that better reveals who the good and bad teams really are.

Once again, this post could not have been possible without Tomahawk Nation.

Brandan Wright All-Stars: ACC

This was originally posted on Storming The Floor.

Brandan Wright was a great player in his short time at Carolina. As half of one of the best 1-2 frontcourt punches in the nation, he led the ACC in field goal percentage, and was a big lift to a 12-deep UNC team which, when mentally in the game, could not be stopped.

However, Brandan had a weakness. Oh, did he have a weakness. His free throw shooting was terrible. The shooting motion was almost painful to watch, and Heels fans could hear the clang of the ball bouncing off the rim from the moment Wright drew a foul. It was especially painful when compared to Tyler Hansbrough, about an 80% free throw shooter. As great and talented a player as Brandan was, the one aspect of his Carolina career which I will always remember is OH MY GOD HE’S SHOOTING FREE THROWS RUN FOR YOUR LIVES!!!

So this is dedicated to the players who only shoot the ball smooth as silk when there’s a hand in their face. The great shooters of each conference who can’t hit a free throw to save their souls. These…are the Brandan Wright All-Stars of the ACC.

Center: Ryan Pettinella, Virginia. The 6-9 senior transfer from Penn has rapidly regressed in his free throw abilities during his college career. As a freshman, he shot 63.1 percent from the free throw line. Since then, the percentage has come down to 42%, to 24%, to an unbelievable 10% this season.

Read that again. Ten percent from the free throw line. Dave Leitao would get a better free throw percentage from a parapalegic with Tourettes in the student section. All of this despite shooting nearly 54% from the field.

Forward: Gani Lawal, Georgia Tech. The local freshman phenom from College Park is second in the ACC in field goal percentage (66.1), but is only 20 of 38 from the charity stripe, less than 53 percent.

Forward: Dwayne Collins, Miami(FL). The Hurricanes’ sixth man has been a valuable part of their 13-1 start, shooting 59.1% off the bench. However, with a 46.3 shooting percentage from the stripe. expect to see him on the bench in the final minutes.

Guard: Rakim Sanders, Boston College. The Eagles’ shooting guard, designated sharpshooter, and second leading scorer (behind the indispensable Tyrese Rice) is a paltry 36.4 percent from the line this season.

Guard: Cliff Hammonds, Clemson. You know I had to put a Clemson player on this list. While he was not involved in the Tiger’s charity stripe breakdown against North Carolina, his free throw percentage is perhaps the worst among ACC starters (35%), despite being one of the conference’s best 3-point shooters, 46.3% from beyond the arc.

So the next time your team is playing from behind late in a game, these are the players you need to foul.

(Dis)honorable mention: Brian Zoubek (Duke), Deon Thompson (UNC), Ismael Smith (Wake), The entire Clemson squad, except Terrence Oglesby, in their game against North Carolina.

Alabama’s Upset Bid Falls Short

Despite having no real point guard (due to Ronald Steele’s knee injury) and having little inside presence outside of Richard Hendrix to neutralize Roy Hibbert, the Crimson Tide managed to fight until the very end tonight; until the final two minute, neither team led by more than 5 points. Key three point shooting from Jessie Sapp and Dajuan Summers, as well as Hibbert’s offensive rebounds and a few ill-advised passes, proved to be too much for the Crimson Tide, and the Hoyas eeked out a victory in the inaugural Big East/SEC Invitational.

It’s too bad. If Bama had pulled off the the victory, our first true upset of a top 5 team this year, I would have posted a clip of the famous “Alabama Man” just for the occasion. Instead, you’ll just have to settle for the French version.

Double Live-Blog: Oregon-Arizona St. 2nd Half/LSU Alabama 4th Quarter

Oregon-ASU updates in regular font; LSU-Bama updates in Italics.

8:16 pm: Alabama is forced to punt, and LSU will get the ball back with a chance to take back the lead.

8:20 pm: Byrd gets another catch deep downfield, and LSU is inside the 40 yard line.

8:23 pm: LSU is forced into a fourth down, but Colt David nails the 49-yard field goal to tie the game, 27-27. LSU was given a potential knockout punch, but they’ve gotten right back up. What a game.

8:28 pm: Parker-Wilson manages to scramble out of the pocket and get a first down on third and 4. What’s worse, Chavis Jackson is called for holding, anther LSU penalty. The Tigers now have 12 penalties against them, costing 111 yards.

8:30 pm: What a catch by Matt Caddell! Parker-Wilson throws a deep pass, and Caddell dive to make the big catch inside the 20.

BUT…the replay booth reverses the call! It’s ruled an incomplete pass. Looking at the replay, it could have gone either way, but its a big blow to the Tide, who now face 3rd and 19.

8:35 pm: Bama goes conservative on 3rd and long, opting for the screen. Dorsey chases Jonathan Lowe down, and the Tide will have to punt.

8:39 pm: After Oregon kick the opening kickoff out of bounds, Arizona is driving the ball efficiently to start the second half.

8:40 pm: LSU is forced into a fourth and inches. You know exactly what Les Miles is going to do next–give it to He…whaaa?? LSU is called for a false start, and now they must punt. In addition, the Tigers are called for a personal foul.

8:43 pm: TOUCHDOWN! Javier Arenas takes the punt, and he finds a huge seam up the middle of the field, going practically untouched into the endzone on the punt return. Alabama takes a 34-27 lead off of yet another big mistake by LSU. You know what? I’m now rooting for chaos. MAO!

8:46 pm: Arizona State kicks a field goal. Oregon’s lead has shrunk to 21-16…but they’re in position to score after a the ensuing kickoff brings the Ducks near midfield.

8:48 pm: Richard Hickson is open in the middle again, but he drops the ball this time, Second down for LSU.

8:49 pm: Arizona State takes over from their own 6 yard line, from what I think is an Oregon punt. I’ve been engrossed in the other game, so I honestly don’t know.

8:51 pm: LSU is forced into a 3-and-out, giving their opponent good field position…

8:52 pm:…and so is Arizona State.

8:54 pm: TOUCHDOWN! What a run by Johnathan Stewart! He broke through an arm tackle, and he outran everybody before busting through one more tackle for the end zone. Oregon takes a 28-16 lead.

8:55 pm: LSU will get at least one more chance, with the ball and less than five minutes left.

8:57 pm: LSU is driving the ball to midfield, thanks to two big catches by Brandon Lafell.

8:58 pm: Early Doucet gets a good pass from Flynn, but the defensive back strips the ball out for an incompletion.

8:59 pm: On 3rd and 5, Flynn finds a receiver on a quick slant for a first down.

9:00 pm: Chris McGaha has had a big game tonight. He catches another big pass, this time down the middle, and Arizona State is driving again.

9:02 pm: TOUCHDOWN! Early Doucet makes the catch on 4th and 4, and he shake off the entire Alabama secondary to waltz into the end zone. The game is now tied , 34-34, with 2:49 left. How amazing is this?

9:04 pm: Oregon gets the ball back, but…on third down, a receiver drops the ball again. That’s his third dropped pass today, and the Ducks must punt.

9:06 pm: John Parker Wilson is sacked for the 6th time. The Tide now face 3rd and long.

9:07 pm: FUMBLE! LSU runs the all-out blitz, Wilson fumbles the ball, it rolls down inside the 5 yard line, and LSU recovers. What a turn of events. Mr. Wilson, you must secure that football. Don’t hold it so far from your body when being tackled.

9:12 pm: TOUCHDOWN! Jacob Hester dives into the endzone for the score. LSU now takes a 41-34 lead with less than 90 seconds left. Truly insane.

9:15 pm: The insanity continues…Wilson barely escapes the pocket, but he then gets a huge run to bring the Tide to midfield. 1:11 left.

9:16 pm: Jonathan Xenon comes thisclose to ending the game with an interception, but after another incomplete pass, Alabama face 4th down anyway.

9:19 pm: Keith Brown gets his hands on it…but Steltz jars the ball out! It’s an incomplete pass, and LSU escapes again!

Let me say this about the LSU win: In this stretch of four games, the Tigers have had every reason to lose each of their last four games, but no one told them that, they stood up to theses challenges, and they came back from three of these games to steal a win–and make no mistake, they have stolen these games against Florida, Auburn, and Alabama–and they now have a pretty clear road to Atlanta. LSU wins, 41-34.

Now..we can finally return to Oregon-ASU.

9:24 pm: Oregon scores again to end the third quarter. As we enter the fourth quarter of play, Oregon has taken a 35-16 lead. The Ducks have shut down the Arizona State offense in the second half.

9:27 pm: Arizona State, desperately in need of a score, goes three and out again. Oregon is taking control of this game.

9:33 pm: A potentially game changing series of events: Dennis Dixon is injured, and has been (at least temporarily) taken out of the game.

9:36 pm: Brady Leaf comes into the game, and he promptly goes three and out.

9:37 pm: Arizona State pinned back near their own endzone, but Michael Jones makes a huge catch 30 yards downfield. Arizona State is now in the hurry-up offense, with ten minutes left and in need of three touchdowns.

9:39 pm: Oregon is called, rightfully, for defensive holding, and the Sun Devils have a first down in Oregon territory.

9:42 pm: After three incompletions, Arizona State goes for it on fourth and 10…and Mcgaha gets big catch and an even bigger run afterwards to get a first down insode the 20.

9:43 pm: INTERCEPTION! On the very next play, a miscommunication leads to Carpenter throwing the ball into a crowd of 3 Oregon players. A receiver must have completely missed his route.

One of the things I don’t understand: both teams have excellent, speedy running backs, but both teams seem to have abandoned the run.

9:45 pm: Brady Leaf is still in the game, but now he’s handing it off to Johnathan Stewart, as the Ducks are trying to waste some clock.

9:49 pm: UPSET WATCH: Florida State 7, Boston College 0, Halftime.

9:53 pm: On the first play for Arizona State’s drive, Michael Jones catches another deep pass, and he runs to the 11 yard line. Another insane catch by Jones.

9:54 pm: TOUCHDOWN! Carpenter finds his tight end in the end zone. Rudy Carpenter now has 334 yards passing. Oregon leads, 35-23 after ASU takes the extra point, instead of the two point conversion that would have reduced the deficit to a TD, two pointer, and field goal.

9:56 pm: 5:10 remaining. Brady Leaf is still in the game.

9:59 pm: Oregon throws three passes, but two incompletions force a punt for Oregon. What was Mike Bellotti thinking? Oregon needed to eat up clock.

10:01 pm: What is possibly the most insane play of the game. Rudy Carpenter throws a deep pass under pressure, throws into triple coverage, and his tight end makes a spectacular leap for the catch, runs after the catch, but then fumbles as he’s brought down inside the Oregon 30, and the Ducks recover. That almost certainly seals the game for Oregon.

10:08 pm: The Ducks have managed to run the clock down to 21 seconds, ending any hope ASU had in this game.

10:10 pm: The game fittingly ends with a sack, as Oregon wins, 35-23. With this win, Oregon controls their Pac-10 destiny, moves to at least #4 in the nation, and ends Arizona State’s title hopes (barring, of course, an even more insane final month to the season. A good game, but the LSU game stole the show in another great day of college football.

Double Live Blog: LSU vs. Alabama, 1st Half

Note: If you’re looking for Oregon vs. ASU, click here.

Tonight, Digital Headbutt is going to live-blog two overlapping, huge college football games. The first one is LSU vs. Alabama. It’s Les Miles’ gigantic jewels versus Nick Saban’s Kool-Aid, for the SEC West.

I’ll admit that when my team isn’t doing very well (and UNC is 2-6 this year), I root for chaos in the national title picture. I’m even willing to admit that I was rooting for Auburn when LSU last played. However, Nick Saban neutralizes my desire for chaos. Go Tigers.

5:03 pm: Alabama gets the ball to start the game, returning the kickoff to the 38 yard line.

5:04 pm: John Parker-Willson’s first two passes are off the mark, putting Alabama in an early 3rd and long.

5:05 pm: LSU runs the all-out blits, but Parker-Wilson makes them pay with a pass to an open Caddell for a first down…barely.

5:05 pm: Wow. LSU DE Tyson Jackson almost intercepted that screen pass.

5:06 pm: Parker throws a deep floater on 3rd and 10, and Caddell is there to make the catch at the 20 yard line, as LSU overran the underthrown pass. Bama is knocking on the door.

5:08 pm: After a missed shot to the endzone and the Tide’s first rush, Parker-Wilson finally misses on 3rd down. Alabama settles for a field goal to take a 3-0 lead.

5:12 pm: LSU gets the ball, and they start with two runs to Jacob Hester. He gives them a quick first down.

5:14 pm: I know that LSU enjoys playing throwback football, but…a QB sneak on first and 10?

5:15 pm: Flynn rolls out, and he finds a wide open Richard Dickson in the middle of the field. 1st down, and LSU is at the Bama 35.

5:16 pm: the Tide leave the middle open again, and this time Flynn finds Early Doucet. LSU is now in the red zone.

5:18 pm: Alabama is caught offside, but then immediately Herman Johnson give the five yards back.

5:20 pm: Good coverage leads to two big sacks for Alabama. On the second sack, Flynn fumbled, and LSU is very lucky to still have the ball.

5:21 pm: Colt David nails the 44-yard field goal down the middleto tie the game, 3-3.

5:26 pm: Glenn Dorsey goes down, re-aggravating the injury he suffered during the Auburn game. It does not look good for him at all; let’s hope he’s okay.

5:28 pm: Dorsey was able to jog off the field on his own pow-INTERCEPTION! Chavis Jackson jumps on Caddell’s route, and he returns the pick to the Bama 13 yard line. The Tigers are back in business, and the Tide need another stop.

5:30 pm: Bama continues putting the pressure on Flynn, who was forced to throw a bad pass on second down.

5:31 pm: TOUCHDOWN! Flynn throws a quick screen to Doucet, and great downfield blocking allows Doucet to find his way to the middle of the end zone. LSU takes a 10-3 lead.

5:35 pm: Glenn Dorsey is being taken to the locker room.

5:36 pm: LSU has another injury. This time, it’s LB Gary Beckwith, who made a great play to stuff Terry Allen behind the line of scrimmage. That’s two key players in the front seven who are now out of the game.

5:38 pm: SACK! The cornerback blitz was completely unimpded, and Alabama will have to punt. LSU gets the ball at their own 46.

5:39 pm: LSU runs a trick play, a reverse pass, and it works almost to perfection. Doucet finds a wide open Flynn, who catches it and runs it inside the 20. However, Flynn’s knee was banged up on the play, and with Perriloux’s suspension, the Tigers may have to resort to their 3rd string QB, who transferred from Harvard.

5:43 pm: Apparently, Flynn doesn’t care about his knee. On the next play, he runs to the right side and nearly gets a first down before a hard tackle brings him down.

5:46 pm: The Tigers give it to Hester, who busts it to the 5 yard line. First and goal.

5:47 pm: The first quarter ends, with LSU leading 10-3. The second quarter willl start with LSU facing 3rd and goal, inches from the goal line.

5:53 pm: TOUCHDOWN! Jacob Hester was hit behind the line of scrimmage, but he knees driving and leans into the endzone. LSU takes a 17-3 lead to start the second quarter.

5:56 pm: Glenn Dorsey is back in the game, and he stuff the first down run at the line of scrimmage.

5:58 pm: Alabama tries the end-around to D.J. Hall. He runs out of room on the sidelines, and goes out of bounds for a 2 yard loss. Parker-Wilson misfires on the next pass, forcing the Tide to punt again.

6:04 pm: Hester gets some decent yardage on a screen play, but another Tiger is injured. This time it’s Herman Johnson.

6:08 pm: After an incomplete pass, LSU is forced to punt for the first time.

6:10 pm: Running Up The Score Watch: Kansas beats Nebraska, 76-39. I didn’t think I would ever see the day that the Nebraska defense allowed 76 points in a game.

6:12 pm: Interesting fact: John parker-Wilson has not completed any passes since the two third down catches by Caddell.

6:13 pm: Just as I say that: TOUCHDOWN! Parker-Wilson finds a wide open D. J. Hall deep downfield, who jogs into the endzone. LSU’s lead has shrunk to 17-10. The Tyson Jackson roughing the passer penalty really came back to bite the Tigers.

6:14 pm: Sonic is going the way of the Texas State Fair, with fried Macaroni & Cheese.

6:17 pm: Kieland Williams gets his first carry of the game. Shockingly, these two teams have combined for only 32 rushing yards thus far.

6:18 pm: INTERCEPTION! Flynn thinks he has single coverage, but Rashad Johnson swoops in fro the free safety position to get the pick. To make matters worse, LSU is called for a personal foul, and Alabama will start with great field position.

6:21 pm: Another penalty this time a facemask. The Tigers are pretty much shooting themselves in the foot; they had control of this game only six game minutes ago, and LSU has allowed Alabama back into this game.

6:23 pm: Another LSU defensive player is injured, and this time it’s Marlon Favorite.

Verne Lundquist tells us that Favorite’s rap was performing in the nightclub when the LSU players got into a fight. Hey, those guys wouldn’t have been in trouble if not for his satanic* hip-hop; blame him, LSU fans!

*If you just took that seriously, you probably shouldn;t be reading sports blogs.

6:25 pm: Beckwith breaks up the third down pass to the flat, forcing Alabama to punt. The Tide, However, drop the punt inside the LSU 10 yard line.

6:27 pm: INTERCEPTION! After an LSU penalty, Ezekiel Knight makes a great one-handed grab to give Alabama a first and goal at the LSU 10 yard line.

6:29 pm: LSU is called for pass interference, giving the Tide another first down. The Tigers seem to be mentally falling apart in the second quarter.

6:34 pm: Despite having only 5 yards to go, Alabama goes 3-and-out. The Tide trail 17-13 after settling for the field goal.

UPSET WATCH: Michigan State 24, Michigan 14, 4th quarter.

UNC WATCH: North Carolina 16, Maryland 10, 4th quarter.

6:43 pm: LSU is now driving the ball well again, thanks in part to Richard Dckson continuing to find holes in the middle of Alabam’s defense. A flynn run up the middle brings the Tigers into field goal range.

6:45 pm: PROGRAMMING ALERT: ASU-Oregon is about to begin.

6:50 pm: MATT FLYNN IS PICKED OFF AGAIN! This time, only Jacob Hester prevents the interception from being returned for a touchdown. Owever, he’s called for a personal foul after the play, and Alabama has the ball in the red zone with 1:07 left in the first half.

6:53 pm: TOUCHDOWN! John Parker-Wilson throws the ball into coverage, but Keith Brown makes a great play to make the catch and block the defenders from making a play. Alabama takes a 20-17 lead, and LSU’s second quarter nightmare is complete.The crowd in Bryant-Denny Stadium has gone completely insane.

6:59 pm: LSU has managed to drive into field goal range, and with 13 seconds left the Tigers have a chance to tie the game.

7:00 pm: After Flynn nearly throws another interception, Colt David’s field goal attempt is blocked to end the first half. Alabama leads, 20-17 at halftime. After LSU dominated the first quarter and completely botched the second quarter, I honestly have no idea what will happen in the second half.

Join me at the next post for the second half of this game and the first half of Oregon-Arizona State.

 

 

Phase 1: Double Live Blog. Phase 2: ?. Phase 3: Profit!

Today’s UNC-Maryland game is ESPNU today, which is God’s way of telling me “Mike, do not watch this terrible game.” What his means for you is that Digital headbutt will have not one, but Two Live Blogs today.

First, we will cover #3 LSY at #17 Alabama at 5:00 pm ET. Nick Saban will be facing his former team for the first time, the winner will have sole possession of first place in the SEC West, and today is, quite possibly, the last time that LSU will truly be on upset alert until the SEC Championship game.

Overlapping that game will be a game with even bigger implications, #5 Oregon hosting #4 Arizona State at 6:45 ET. With USC and Cal out of the Pac 10 championship picture, the winner of this game has the inside track toward the Pac 10 championship, and perhaps even the BCS Championship game. The Ducks have been impressive all year, and would be undefeated if not for an ill-timed fumble against Cal. Meanwhile, Arizona State’s surprise run in Dennis Erickson’s first year could be their best chance for a national title before the inevitable Erickson departure/massive NCAA probation.

 So stay tuned for the live blogs…because we know you’ve got nothing better to do for five hours.